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Considering how well the US market and economy performed in 2023, it's understandable that domestic investors would be optimistic about 2024. But on the other side of the globe, trouble has been brewing in China for some time now. On the surface, the world's second-largest economy seemed reasonably healthy last year, with Chinese GDP rising 5.2% year-over-year. The problems in China continue to growOf the many risks investors face this year, geopolitics consistently ranks as the one they fear the most . "In terms of negative surprises, I'm really keeping an eye on China and the fact that they're clearly experiencing some kind of deflation," he said.
Persons: Christophe Barraud, Barraud, Bloomberg —, I'm, That's, It's Organizations: Bloomberg, Market Securities, Business Locations: China
Bloomberg ranked Barraud as the top forecaster of the US economy in 2022 and 2023 — and every year from 2012 through 2020. He was also the top forecaster of the Eurozone economy in 2022, and of China's economy from 2017 through 2020. The chief economist and strategist at Market Securities is looking to continue his hot streak of correct calls in 2024. He recently discussed with Business Insider his forecast for the US economy and how investors should approach the new year. Barraud agrees with surveys that show geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, represent the biggest threat to the global economy.
Persons: Christophe Barraud, Barraud, He's Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Market Securities, Business, Federal, Fed, ECB
But "retirement spending is not pass-fail," said certified financial planner Justin Fitzpatrick, co-founder of Income Lab, a retirement planning software company. Your retirement spending isn't static, meaning there's room for adjustments over time, depending on your needs and goals, he said, speaking at the Financial Planning Association's annual conference Wednesday. However, Fitzpatrick sees retirement expenses as "a series of small liabilities," and many of these costs can be flexible. "These are not necessarily the things you would prefer ahead of time, but they're different from financial ruin," Fitzpatrick said. Total financial ruin is "almost impossible," because individual liabilities can be small and spending generally happens slowly enough to make "minor and temporary adjustments" over time, he said.
Persons: Martin Barraud, Justin Fitzpatrick, It's, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Caiaimage, Getty, Cerulli Associates
Former Amazon managers say they were pressured to cut successful workers to meet attrition goals. In anticipation of Amazon's performance-review period, he told Insider, he'd kept careful notes on what his employees were doing well and where they could improve. These people said leadership would place employees in Focus even if the managers of those employees said that the workers had met or exceeded expectations. A few weeks later, he said, his manager told him he was on Pivot and had the option to leave the company with severance, which he did. Amazon managers are required to submit their performance ratings for employees in an online tool, then discuss their rationale with managers above them, he said.
The economy has been trending downward for months, but it seems the shoe we've all been waiting to drop — layoffs — is starting to come down. Over on the tech side, Insider is covering the mass layoffs at Twitter, which started last night. Bloomberg reports that Twitter has been hit with a class action lawsuit, alleging staffers were not given enough notice before the cuts. Click here to see all the companies across industries that have already conducted layoffs. Keep updated with the latest business news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief.
Compassionate Eye Foundation/Martin Barraud/OJO Images Ltd / Getty Images1. Who's most at risk during layoffs? Contract workers: At the highest risk are contract employees, which companies use for this very contingency. They want to remain flexible in case of a downturn, and as such, contract employees are usually the first ones out. Special interest groups representing Big Tech companies oppose possible crypto regulation in California. Cryptocurrency companies may soon be required to get a license to operate in the state, and industry groups representing Amazon, Apple, Meta, and other tech companies wrote to the state assembly opposing the law.
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